Tampa Bay Buccaneers predictions: Do any NFL experts think Bucs can upset Detroit Lions? (2024)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one step closer to getting back to the Super Bowl. Clearing the next one would mean snuffing out one of the best stories in American sports.

The Bucs hit the road this weekend to face the Detroit Lions, fresh off their first playoff win since 1991. The Lions have never played in the Super Bowl in the game's 57-year history, and fans in Detroit are willing to pay big bucks to see if this is their year.

Tampa has had a year to remember, as well. In their first season since Tom Brady retired, the Bucs went 9-8 and won their third straight NFC South title. They then won their playoff opener in a 32-9 thumping of the Philadelphia Eagles, who made it all the way to the Super Bowl last season. New quarterback Baker Mayfield threw for 337 yards and three touchdowns, giving him wins in his playoff debut for two teams (he ended the Cleveland Browns' 26-year postseason winless streak in the 2020 season).

Under head coach Dan Campbell, Detroit (12-5) won the NFC North, its first division title since 1993. They beat the Los Angeles Rams 24-23 last week thanks to rushing touchdowns by David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs and a 110-yard receiving day from Amon-Ra St. Brown.

This is the second straight playoff matchup in which the Bucs will look to avenge a loss from the regular season. Detroit shut down Tampa 20-6 on October 15 with quarterback Jared Goff throwing for 353 yards and two touchdowns, and St. Brown bringing in 12 catches for 124 yards and a score. Mayfield threw for 206 yards and an interception, while Mike Evans was held to just four catches for 49 yards.

Who will move on to the NFC Championship Game? Here's a look at what NFL experts and analysts are predicting:

Lorenzo Reyes, USA TODAY: Lions 26-14

"Detroit battled it out in a gritty performance in the wild card and now faces a Buccaneers team that has thrived on the road; Tampa Bay went 8-1 against the spread in road games this season. The problem with the Bucs is that they can be rather inconsistent from one week to the next. And while Todd Bowles’ plan against the Eagles worked wonders, the Lions have had far more success throwing the ball down the field, where Tampa was a little weak this season."

Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Lions 27-24

"The Buccaneers couldn't get any offense going into the Week 6 matchup against the Lions at home, losing 20-6 in Week 8. They should be more game for the rematch with Baker Mayfield red-hot after ripping the Eagles all over the field in the passing game. The concern for Mayfield will Aidan Hutchinson and the Lions' pass rush, containing the big plays. His counterpart Jared Goff will feel a little more comfortable at home and also get more help from an efficient rushing attack."

Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Bucs 30-28

"Both these teams are coming off big home victories, with the Lions earning another home game. The Bucs blew out theEaglesasBaker Mayfieldcame up big. The Lions had to hold on against theRams. Detroit played well on offense, but the defense showed some flaws. That could lead to another good day by Mayfield and his receivers. I thinkJared Goffwill also play well, especially if he can handle the Bucs blitz.Ben Johnsonwill have a plan for that.

"The Lions beat the Bucs earlier this season in Tampa, but it was close. This will also be close, but I think this time Tampa Bay gets payback and advances to the title game. Mayfield will keep it rolling. Upset."

Victoria Hernandez, USA TODAY: Lions 26-17

"There's not a team in the NFL feeling better than the Lions right now. Was their wild-card matchup closer than they would have liked? Yes. But they got the win. They will have fewer distractions this week with the 'Matthew Stafford homecoming' out of the way. Baker Mayfield has proven his leadership, but beating the Eagles isn't the flex we thought it was. Detroit handily beat Tampa Bay in the regular season and they will do so again."

Tom Blair, NFL.com: Lions 27-22

Of the five NFL.com pickers, only Ali Bhanpuri went with the Bucs, predicting a 23-22 Tampa win.

"The Bucs are in a much better place than they werein Week 6, when they lost to the Lions in Tampa -- but so is Detroit," wrote Blair in explaining his Lions pick."Amon-Ra St. Browndid the heavy lifting in that October bout, withJahmyr Gibbsout andDavid Montgomerylogging six carries before getting hurt. Since then, Gibbs and Montgomery have gotten their 1-2-punch act down, and tight endSam LaPortahas truly broken out.

"Presuming the Lions can handle their business on offense, this comes down toBaker Mayfield's ability to keep up. And while he could make things interesting against a defense that ranked 27th against the pass in the regular season, I think Detroit's knack for heating up opposing quarterbacks (they posted a pressure rate of 39.2 percent, seventh-best in the NFL, per NGS) could make the difference. (HavingBrian BranchandC.J. Gardner-Johnsonon the field for this one won't hurt, either.)"

Bill Bender,Sporting News:Lions 26-19

"Who knew this would be the playoff matchup between a pair of former No. 1 picks? These teams met in Week 6, and the Lions won 20-6 on the road. This will be an even tougher task for Tampa Bay at a revved up Ford Field, especially if Jared Goff repeats what he did in the first matchup. Goff had 353 passing yards and a pair of TD passes, and Amon-Ra St. Brown had 12 catches for 124 yards and a TD. That duo was better than good in the wild-card victory against the Rams. Goff had a 107.9 passer rating at home this season.

"Baker Mayfield will be fired up, too, and the Bucs will have a chance if Mike Evans goes off against the Lions' secondary. That could happen either way. Yet Tampa Bay could not run the ball in the first matchup. If that trend repeats itself, then a Detroit pass rush led by Aidan Hutchinson will eventually get home. Tampa Bay is 8-3 ATS as an underdog, so be careful."

Tyler Dragon, USA TODAY: Lions 26-21

"Detroit was electric last week in its first home playoff game in 30 years. The Lions ended their playoff win drought. Now the Lions can play loose and focus on everything between the white lines. The Lions defeated the Bucs 20-6 in Week 6. That game wasn’t a fluke. Detroit is simply a better football team than Tampa Bay. Expect the Lions’ physicality to overwhelm the Bucs. Plus, the Detroit crowd will be rockin’ again."

Tyler Sullivan, CBS Sports: Lions 30-17

"Cards on the table, this is the game I'm least confident in. I'm laying the six-point spread with the Lions, but bettors should proceed with caution as the Bucs were the best road team in theNFLthis season, owning an 8-1 ATS record. However, my gut says that Detroit rolls in this spot. The Lions got the monkey off of their back, earning their first playoff victory since 1991 and doing so in an emotional back-and-forth againstMatthew Stafford. The Lions defense was stellar in the red zone in that winning effort, not allowing the Rams to score a touchdown on any of their three red zone trips.

"And there's reason to believe that'll continue here against Tampa Bay after the Bucs were the third-worst red zone offense in the league this year, scoring touchdowns on just 44.9% of their trips. Going on the road in what is likely going to be a bonkers environment at Ford Field and facing a highly motivated team in the Lions is effectively the polar opposite of what the Buccaneers faced this past week at home against Philadelphia, and I believe that will be extremely apparent."

Bucs-Lions odds

Odds courtesy ofBetMGMas of Thursday, January 18.

• Spread:Lions (-6.5)
• Over/under:48.5 points
• Moneyline:Bucs +220, Lions -275

What time is the Bucs game?

• When:3 p.m. Sunday, January 21
• Where:Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan

The Bucs vs. Lions playoff game kicks off at 3 p.m. Sunday, January 21 at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan.

What channel is Bucs vs. Lions on?

• TV:NBC
• Streaming:Peaco*ck ($5.99 per month),fuboTV(7-dayfree trial),YouTube TV(2-week free trial),Hulu + Live TV(7-day free trial)

Bucs-Lions will air on NBC. Mike Tirico will be on the play-by-play with Cris Collinsworth as the analyst.

Streaming options includefuboTV, which offers a free trial to potential subscribers.

Bucs schedule